THE WILD WEST OF FANTASY FOOTBALL ROOKIES 2024

The idea of drafting rookies for your fantasy football team can seem like an exciting idea but use caution. This can be a dangerous formula, if you buy the hype and spend an early draft pick on a rookie bust. Every year leading up to the draft the hype over the top rookies in the class gets crazy.

2024 ROOKIE CLASS

Let’s look at the top rookies from last year’s draft class. While there was plenty of fantasy success, you could have ended up disappointed depending on when you drafted these prospects. The first round of the 2024 draft class featured 14 offensive skill players selected.

*** Michael Penix Jr – backing up Kirk Cousins & J.J. McCarthy and Ricky Pearsall were injured before the season started. These players were not counted for this analysis.

WHAT A FIRST ROUND

Wow, what a first-round draft class in 2024 out of the 14 rookies in the ESPN Fantasy Football Draft Kit top 300 cheat sheet 9 outperformed their average draft position. Based on ADP the rookie class of 2024 was an overwhelming success. Not only did 81% of the class perform better than their ADP, but most of them were also in fact on starting lineups across fantasy football platforms.

THE GOOD

One of the best performances by a rookie was Jayden Daniels whose ADP was 99, and QB12 off the board and finished at number 5 overall fantasy points and QB5. This translates to Daniels being drafted as a backup QB in most cases and then turning into your teams starting QB. The wide receiver category was stacked with standouts like Malik Nabors and Brian Thomas Jr, these guys crushed their ADP and were fantasy starters every week. Finally, we have the tight end position, this was a guy that made championship rosters. Brock Bowers was drafted at the ADP 111 overall and the TE12, and he finished as the number 35 overall and TE1. This is another example of a free late round pick that would have completely transformed your starting lineup on a weekly basis.

THE BAD

While this pick would not have ruined your team, it certainly did not help you. There was lots of hype around the Chicago Bears draft class with Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze both being selected in the first round. While Williams was ADP of 132 at QB16 didn’t take anything away from your team and his finish was QB16 probably was not on the fantasy radar except in 2 QB leagues. Rome Odunze was a bit more of a disappointment with his ADP of 86 overall at WR43. This is more of a draft capital investment, that did not provide much in return. While he only dropped 6 spots to WR49, he was not a player that you could rely on in your starting lineup. Odunze only had 4 games with double digit scores, making him a hard guy to play.

AND THE UGLY

Out of all those rookies only one would be considered a bust based on their ADP. Marvin Harrison was the first wide receiver selected in the 2024 draft by the Arizona Cardinals. Between his draft capital and his performance in college everyone assumed that would translate to big numbers on the fantasy scoreboard. Unfortunately, those of us that drafted him at his #22 overall ADP were greatly disappointed. In my dynasty league on the Sleeper platform, Harrison finished as a top 10 wide receivers only 2 weeks, and as a top 20 wide receivers 3 weeks. After week 4 you could not start Harrison with any confidence, his production was streaky at best.

STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS

Overall, I would say that if you took a late round flier on one of these first round picks you ended up with a good player. In fact, the measure of success in a draft is to outperform your ADP and most of these players did just that. While you are taking a risk by drafting a rookie, because you do not know how the skill set will translate to the NFL from the college game. Not only that but these guys are usually drafted into poor situations or stuck at the bottom of the depth chart in good situations.

ESPN 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit PPR Top 300 Cheat Sheet, Retrieved 1/19/25 https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/24/NFL24_CS_PPR300.pdf?adddata=2024CS_PPR300

The Fantasy Footballers, Retrieved 1/19/25, 2024 Fantasy Football Stats, https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/2024-fantasy-football-stats/?position=ALL